Lake Tahoe Experts

Another “Red Flag” warning in effect for Today.

The weatherman is predicting wind gusts of up to 30-35 mph today and has issued a red flag warning from 1 to 9 p.m. today. The national weather service is cautioning fire officials to watch our weather conditions closely.

The Map:
Here’s a map that we’ve used for some time to show people the location of our neighborhoods. Over it we have added where the fire started, that area where most of our homes were lost, the direction of the fire, and the approximate line where the fire has been held.

The “Hill” in our Masthead: Where Firefighters Saved the Day.
There is a hill at the lake’s edge in our masthead. This hill is directly above the letter “r” in the word “information”. It extends to the first “t” in the word trust. If one looks at it in our masthead, this hill is a darker blue than the mountains behind it.

The Fire got between this hill and the lake, but was held back from destroying the Gardner Mountain neighborhood that is on it, and Tallac Village below it, and The Tahoe Keys at the Lake’s edge in front of it. Basically it is around this hill that the firefighters held their ground... and saved at least 1,000 or more homes from being destroyed.

2 Sales in 2007, No Escrow, 13 Active Listings.

We have a client in Hawaii that we are doing a workup for on his excellent lake view townhome and for that we’ve just updated all current real estate market information for Lake Village, one of four townhome communities on the Stateline, NV side of South Lake Tahoe.

Please find Lake Village in our left sidebar. You will find each current listing, escrow, all 2007 sales to date, and all Lake Village 2006, 2005 and 2004 sales.

There are pop-up windows containing the latest market statistics above each spreadsheet, one in the top-middle of the page, and one atop the far right corner of each spreadsheet.

The statistics in the pop-up windows are based on the only 2 sales thus far this year. There were also only a few sales in Lake Village in 2006. You may wish to check the stats for 2005 to get a better idea of current Lake Village conditions.

Like most all of our South Lake Tahoe market, and most of the country as well, Lake Village at present has more supply than demand. There are Buyers continually looking however; there is showing activity, and like always in our mountain lake resort, it is always a good time to sell a reasonably priced property.

Yesterday’s predicted winds did not materialize. This gave firefighters a day of favorable conditions to gain ground against the Angora wild fire, which is now 55% contained. Most importantly, the absence of the forecasted afternoon winds allowed the approximately 2,000 fire combatants to further strengthen fire breaks to protect homes in Gardner Mountain, Tallac Village, the Camp Richardson area and The Tahoe Keys neighborhoods.

We are not out of risk, however, as the winds are again called for today. Forecasts for the Lake Tahoe Basin call for 15-25 mph winds and gusts that could reach 40 mph by this afternoon. Hopefully not, and we again hope the weathermen are wrong, but we have already seen gusts this morning that were stonier than anything we saw yesterday. At present there is a slight breeze with occasional increases that we can hear in the tall trees flanking our home in Mid Kingsbury on the Nevada side of South Lake Tahoe. These gusts are teetering the tall pines, bouncing branches in an up and down wobble, and then it dies down. Again this is more wind than we saw yesterday.

With the winds calm yesterday afternoon, we went out on the lake to get a better look at the fire zone. The lake was too choppy for our 19’ boat, and we were not out there long, but with the breeze blowing in the direction of the fire (from northeast to southwest), the lingering smoke had for the most part cleared the Tahoe basin and we could easily see smoldering plumes rising from the firelines across the lake in the distance.

The plumes clearly showed that the fire is somewhat spread out. The Gardner Mountain neighborhood is situated on a hill, below that and across Highway 89 is Tallac Village and then The Tahoe Keys. This is the area of greatest risk and concern. There was a line of smoke rising from the lake side of this hill. Between that and the neighborhoods before it is the firefighters highest priority. There are also numerous plume lines behind that hill, which is toward the original flashpoint of the fire.

Yesterday, our good friend Peter Tye emailed us that he was in The Tahoe Keys, and that there were 10 fire engines on the street in front of him. They were waiting, poised to protect. Thankfully the absence of those afternoon winds allowed Peter to safely remain there. Only a few blocks from where he was though, the entire neighborhood of Tallac Village has been evacuated, as has been several streets in The Tahoe Keys that are closest to it.

Yesterday was a good day. So far so good for today. And we hope no wind today stirs back up this fire storm.

Today opens with real concern about the weather. Firefighters have been warned to expect strong, southwesterly winds with gusts reaching 35 mph between 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. this afternoon.

These stiffer winds have the dangerous possibility of throwing the fire into more of our South Lake Tahoe neighborhoods, one of which is our most affluent. If the fire is not held back successfully by firefighters, the winds today poses risk for the following neighborhoods: Gardner Mountain, Tallac Village, The Tahoe Keys, the Camp Richardson area and possibly more. These winds also will bring increased risk to the firefighters themselves.

Obviously, weather conditions are not good. The wind is expected to decrease by the evening and become relatively calm. Today is a real test.

At present, there are approximately 2,000 firefighters fighting the wild fire. There are 11 or so helicopters, what looks like hundreds of fire engines, 54 hand crews, 14 water tenders, countless support vehicles and bulldozers clearing out firebreaks.

This is what all of us have in front of us today. Naturally, we are all poised, alert, hunkered down. We’re watching out homes, thinking about what we’ll take if we have to leave in a hurry. We’re the lucky ones. Some 2,000 people have already had to go.

We’re watching all the news and checking online constantly for updates and any new developments. The Tahoe Daily Tribune is doing an excellent job with continuing breaking news coverage. All of the news media is here. The news, and rumor, moves quickly and proportionate to the speed of the fire. Mostly yesterday this was rather slow, but an unexpected afternoon wind burst blew the fire across a break. That came with new of immediate, mandatory evacuations, some of which were accurate, and others thankfully rumor.

We’re finding the best news at the Tahoe Daily Tribune online, and KMTN television, a local station of the Resort Sports Network, which mostly features content about Lake Tahoe recreation and sports activities.

Our intention was to post today about our community coming together through this disaster. We’re thinking we’ll write about this tomorrow now... as we are very much focused on the wind today. We’re still thinking it would be wonderful if collectively we could all conjure up an effective rain dance.

Pertaining to the South Lake Tahoe real estate business, which is of such minimal priority to even consider when both homeowners and firefighters are at such risk, it is unfortunate that a local real estate agent was quoted in the newspaper that the fire “could mean good business for the real estate market.” We feel that is an exceptionally inappropriate comment at such a time.

Photos here are from our friend Peter Tye.

I was sitting there, staring blankly at the tv, taking a Sunday afternoon off from thinking about our current real estate market, which is pretty much what I think about, well... when I’m awake. Mostly these days it’s about, being a marketer at heart, finding that one perfect thought, that one perfect sentence that will bridge the current disconnect between what Sellers want and what Buyers are willing to pay. Every now and then, but not often, I need to get away from it, even if it means washing my brain with anything else, and in this case it was a mindless PlayStation 2 game. Oddly, and peacefully, it was refreshing.

It’s a fire, I said to her a minute later, and by then ashes and soot, propelled by unusual blustery winds coming out of an odd two-front weather trough, were falling around us in the cul de sac of our Mid-Kingsbury home on the Nevada side of South Lake Tahoe. “Can’t you smell it”, I asked her. “I can now”, she said. It had come over us that quick.

Moments later, looking from our deck through the trees, we could see smoke plumes towering over Heavenly Mountain. We followed the trail back toward it’s beginning on the distant side of the lake. It looked like the fire was up in the mountains, and from what I could then see I thought on the other side of Mount Tallac. There are no homes there, only high-mountain forest up to the tree line, and beyond that nothing much but rock. The land over there is inaccessible, uninhabited and a lot of it. We have seen smoke from fires in that vast distance before, mostly from lightning strikes, and never threatening. I thought little about it, other than Maxene was right, the color of the sky was amazing; it was peach, and the sun shined through the smoke plume blood-orange red.

The ashes and soot, I rationalized, were still carried even over great distance by the rare wind conditions. I had no idea the fire was in the middle of one of our most desirable neighborhoods.

Then my brother called. He was doing an open house at one of our listings in Al Tahoe, one of South Lake Tahoe’s in-town neighborhoods next to the lake. The fire, he said, looks like it’s coming from the direction of Angora Highlands. We had just closed a sale for a house there last week, and as such this is the term he used for that area, which also includes the neighborhoods of Meyers, North Upper Truckee, Gardner Mountain, Tahoe Paradise and Country Club Estates.

Needless to say, the fire was a monster. My casual first-hopes went up in flames with it. The wild child is being tamed now, but it could return to its uncontrollable blaze of fury by the strong winds that forecasted for tomorrow. We want not, hope remains and prayer is focused on the noble firefighters doing their magnificent battle.

It was a “crown-fire”, one that springs from tree top to tree top, and this one was pushed by 40 mile per hour winds. A homeowner saw it fly a hundred yards in two seconds. Impossible to outrun, damn difficult to outdrive. No lives lost, no injuries. We were lucky in that regard, but 220 of our homeowners have had better days. We feel dreadfully sorry for each and every one of them. If we could only restart Sunday anew.

Our first thought, make that prayer, was that no homes would be lost. I wished to be abe to conjure up an effective rain dance. If only the Washoe Indians were still here; maybe they could. We didn’t hear anything for what seemed like the longest time. As the news started pouring in, and it came with a difficult to swallow gulp, we heard that 52 homes were lost in North Upper Truckee. My heart sank as prayers rose. A pause then, the news remained the same for what seemed like the longest time, but by nightfall the number of lost homes grew to 165, and then after that it was 220.

It’s only today that I’ve stopped to think about how we felt at the time. That’s retrospective with effort. Shock, stunned, is what I can describe, but what I was most aware of, and overcome by was a sickened feeling of neighbors being displaced, uprooted, having lost where they belong. I know those streets, can see those homes in my mind. These are people that we all know. They are us and it hit very close to home.

In the last two days, we’ve heard from friends and clients from all across the world. A client emailed from Africa who was worried about his home. We heard from Australia... and Great Britian, and all across this country. “Are you all right?”, is what they asked. “We are, thank God”, is what we said.

In separate posts, we will review the extraordinary community meeting about the fire that we attended last night, and take a close look at the behind the scene staging area for fighting the fire.

About the Photos here:
We have not been allowed to enter the fire zone. We could have produced a PRESS pass for this blog, but chose not to get in the way of the difficult work being done. The credits for the photographs here are from top to bottom:

1. From webcam at top of Heavenly Mountain.
2. Chelsi Cooley
3. News Channel 10
4. News Channel 10
5. Brad Horn
6. News Channel 10

Fire Facts:

• 2,700 plus acres.
• Point of origin: The blaze began in the neighborhood of North Upper Truckee, about 300 yards to 400 yards south of Seneca Pond, an area popular with runners and teenagers.
• 2,000 firefighters at present.
• 1,000 residents evacuated.
• 2 fire trucks lost.
• 1,400 residents w/out power.
• No deaths, no injuries reported at present.

More information:
Tahoe Daily Tribune

Homes Affected:
List of homes

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We’ve just updated Y Area. Please click the link “Y Area, CA” found in our left sidebar.  This will lead one to all current Y Area listings, current escrow and all sales in 2007. Also included are all Y Area sales for 2006, 2005 and 2004.

About the Y Area:
(Number homes: less than 100) The Y Area is a small, older neighborhood offering market entry level homes, remodel opportunities and from time to time large estate homes overlookiing a meadow. Some new remodels are also available from time to time. Homes range in value from the $200K’s to midmarket homes in the $600K’s and more. Almost any home here that is listed in the low $200K’s, or below, will sell quickly.

Also found on each spreadsheet page for Y Area are statistics charts with the following:

• -- Median Sold Price.
• -- Average List Price.
• -- Original List Price.
• -- Dollar difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Percent difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Average Price per Sq Ft.
• -- Average Days on Market.
• -- Average Size.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We’ve just updated Tahoe Paradise. Please click the link “Tahoe Paradise, CA” found in our left sidebar.  This will lead one to all current Tahoe Paradise listings, current escrow and all sales in 2007. Also included are all Tahoe Paradise sales for 2006, 2005 and 2004.

About Tahoe Paradise:
Located across Pioneer Trail from Country Club Estates, homes in the Tahoe Paradise area offer secluded yet convenient mountain living. Only a few short miles from the casinos at Stateline, it also has convenient access to the shopping in Meyers. As in other areas, some of the homes are ripe for remodelling, and many have been upgraded already. Prices in Tahoe Paradise range from market entry homes in the $300K’s to mid-market opportunities, to a few large, recently built retreats at $1M plus. This is an excellent neighborhood for either a primary or a vacation home.

Also found on each spreadsheet page for Tahoe Paradise are statistics charts with the following:

• -- Median Sold Price.
• -- Average List Price.
• -- Original List Price.
• -- Dollar difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Percent difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Average Price per Sq Ft.
• -- Average Days on Market.
• -- Average Size.
  

We offer this information as a public service. It is the most complete current information on Tahoe Paradise available.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We’ve just updated Tahoe Island Park. Please click the link “Tahoe Island Park, CA” found in our left sidebar.  This will lead one to all current Tahoe Island Park listings, current escrow and all sales in 2007. Also included are all Tahoe Island Park sales for 2006, 2005 and 2004.

About Tahoe Island Park:
(Number homes: about 575) With close proximity to South Lake Tahoe’s shopping, recreation and entertainment attractions, Tahoe Island Park is an attractive market entry to mid-market neighborhood located between our main thoroughfare and the Tahoe Keys. Values range from the high $300K’s to the $700K’s, and more for new and large remodeled homes. Here you will find homes in original condition with updating opportunities and recently completed remodels. Sales here can be and often are brisk.

Also found on each spreadsheet page for Tahoe Island Park are statistics charts with the following:

• -- Median Sold Price.
• -- Average List Price.
• -- Original List Price.
• -- Dollar difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Percent difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Average Price per Sq Ft.
• -- Average Days on Market.
• -- Average Size.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We’ve just updated Tahoe Island Drive. Please click the link “Tahoe Island Drive, CA” found in our left sidebar.  This will lead one to all current Tahoe Island Drive listings, current escrow and all sales in 2007. Also included are all Tahoe Island Drive sales for 2006, 2005 and 2004.

About Tahoe Island Drive:
(Number homes: a few less than 500) This is a desirable market entry to mid-market area located close to our shopping, recreation and entertainment attractions. Next to the Tahoe Keys, Tahoe Island Drive is closer to the lake than to the ski lifts and casinos, yet all Tahoe attractions are less than a few minutes away. Market entry opportunities can be found here. Values range from the low $300K’s to the upper $700K’s and more. Well priced homes in the $300K’s can sell here very quickly. Recent remodels are available, and new to newer homes from time to time.

Also found on each spreadsheet page for Tahoe Island Drive are statistics charts with the following:

• -- Median Sold Price.
• -- Average List Price.
• -- Original List Price.
• -- Dollar difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Percent difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Average Price per Sq Ft.
• -- Average Days on Market.
• -- Average Size.

(LAKE TAHOE REAL ESTATE BLOG) We’ve just updated Stateline Area. Please click the link “Stateline Area, CA” found in our left sidebar.  This will lead one to all current Stateline Area listings, current escrow and all sales in 2007. Also included are all Stateline Area sales for 2006, 2005 and 2004.

About the Stateline Area:
(Number homes: 289) Located between the casinos and the Lake, homes in the Stateline area offer a range of value and opportunity. Obviously the location is ideal, especially for people who want to be close to the Lake and our entertainment attractions. Values range widely, from market entry to lake front estates in the millions. Stateline is a rather small neighborhood, with little supply against high demand. Sales are usually quick here, especially in the market entry to mid-market range.

Also found on each spreadsheet page for Stateline Area are statistics charts with the following:

• -- Median Sold Price.
• -- Average List Price.
• -- Original List Price.
• -- Dollar difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Percent difference between original list and median sold price.
• -- Average Price per Sq Ft.
• -- Average Days on Market.
• -- Average Size.